As Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, prepares to return to Jackson Hole this Friday, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a sense of anticipation due to the similarities in the current price action compared to the period leading up to last year’s speech.
Key moving averages have been tested and lost over the past two weeks, followed by a period of consolidation, reminiscent of previous events.
However, it is important to note that these similarities do not guarantee a repeat of the past, as market conditions and Powell’s stance have since evolved.
Déjà Vu In The Bitcoin Market?
According to Keith Alan, co-founder of analysis and crypto research firm Material Indicator, last year, in the two weeks preceding Powell’s speech, BTC’s price broke through crucial technical support levels represented by the 21-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-week Moving Averages (MA).
Subsequently, a period of consolidation ensued, followed by a significant price drop in response to Powell’s hawkish tone during the speech. Alan stated:
Remember when Fed Chair Powell spoke from Jackson Hole last year and his hawkish tone triggered a 29% BTC dump that took 5 months to recover?
Notably, the recent price action in the Bitcoin market has displayed similarities to last year’s pattern. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has tested and lost these same key moving averages, and it is currently undergoing a phase of consolidation, mirroring the events leading up to Powell’s previous address.
Keith Alan emphasizes that since last year’s Jackson Hole event, there have been notable changes. Core inflation has decreased, and Powell’s approach to communication has become more “measured”.
It is uncertain whether Powell will adopt a hawkish or dovish stance in his upcoming speech, making it challenging to predict the market’s reaction with certainty. What is evident, however, is that the market is primed for a significant move.
Additionally, Alan suggests that the formation of a lower low in price increases the likelihood of an extension of the existing downtrend. Market participants should be prepared for the possibility of further testing of support levels.
As the Bitcoin market awaits Powell’s speech, market sentiment remains dynamic. Traders and investors are anticipating potential market-moving cues from the event.
As the date of Jerome Powell’s return to Jackson Hole approaches, Bitcoin has displayed a notable recovery of 2.1% within the past 24 hours, marking a positive upward movement that brings it closer to the $27,000 threshold.
However, it is crucial to note that if the outcome of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday proves favorable for crypto investors and propels Bitcoin’s price to higher levels, the cryptocurrency may encounter a significant obstacle in the form of its 200-day moving average positioned at $27,200.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com